Over the summer, ARPA Canada will be re-posting an old blog or article each Thursday. We hope that you enjoy these blasts from the past as we re-live some of the major content, issues, and campaigns of ARPA’s past 15 years. 

This article was originally published in 2011 and builds upon last week’s Throwback Thursday article investigating how Reformed Christians participated in public life by voting.

It has only been about 60 years since a swell of Dutch Reformed immigrants crossed the Atlantic Ocean in a quest for space, freedom, and opportunity in Canada. A lot has changed since then, with a third and fourth generation emerging, many of whom have more awareness of Quebec culture than the Dutch. We may wonder what the future looks like for a church community that is now fully Canadian. Here are some things to consider when we look specifically at the role of Reformed Christians in the public square.

Size Matters: We May Be Small, But We Have More Children

The fertility rate in Canada is 1.53, which is even less than China’s 1.7 and far below the 2.1 necessary to maintain our population. Fewer Canadians are getting married and those that are tying the knot are doing so later in life. When that is combined with the prevalence of birth control and abortion, it translates into very few children. In contrast, the Reformed church community is generally known for having large families. In the first generation of immigrants, a family of 7 or even 10 children was not something to blink at. Since then, 4-5 children is more common, with a few noticeably large families still present. Among the Netherlands Reformed Congregations, it is still common to see families with 8 or more children. A generalization would be that Reformed churches no longer have as many children as they used to, but still at least double the Canadian average. There are a lot of children sitting in the pews today.

Why does this matter? As policy makers are discovering (a little too late), a low fertility rate is devastating for a society’s economy and culture. Muslims are making huge inroads into Europe simply because they have a lot more children. A high fertility rate for Reformed Christians in Canada should mean increased growth and increased influence. That assumes that these children remain committed to their faith. Looking just at Canadian Reformed Church statistics indicates annual growth of only about 1.25% which suggests that either not as many children are being born or/and members are going elsewhere.

Worldview Matters: Christ’s Lordship Applies to All of Life

Reformed Christians that came from the Netherlands brought with them a conviction that Christ’s Lordship must apply to all of life, including culture and politics. We are blessed with a heritage that understands Christian worldview – looking at all of life through the lens of God’s Word. We are also blessed with Reformed schools, where this worldview education can permeate some of our most influential years. As a result, in many Reformed churches, there is a common understanding that we have a duty to be a voice for truth, even if it means being politically incorrect and (wrongly) labelled as right-wing fundamentalists.

This is not something to take for granted. Mainline churches in Canada (such as the United Church) are still willing to be involved in politics, but their message is more based on humanism than God’s Word. How else can a church be officially pro-choice and a vocal supporter of changing the definition of marriage? There are some evangelical leaders and organizations that do a great job of applying a faith-based perspective to current issues. But they struggle to convince many evangelical churches who view politics as simply a liability and something that distracts us from our calling to spread the Good News.

The point is that a growing Reformed community won’t make an impact in our society if we don’t actually apply our faith to our daily lives, wherever God has put us. This doesn’t just happen. The sad reality is that the preaching and teaching is being drowned out by hours of secular media that is coming into our homes daily and selling a very different worldview. Meditating on God’s Word, quality books and magazines (like Reformed Perspective) is being replaced with Facebook, socializing, and navel gazing. Postmodernism is making us all, young and old alike, very hesitant to speak up about anything that might offend someone, even if it is the truth. When we add to this mix the busyness that we strive to attain but claim to despise, we risk becoming an increasingly superficial people who don’t take the time to think things through, let alone act on our faith-based convictions.

Reason for Optimism: Youth With a Mission

When we started ARPA Canada less than four years ago, we weren’t sure if others would catch the vision. Thanks to God’s hand of blessing, it has flourished. We are encouraged almost daily with stories of Reformed Christians who are making a difference in their communities and country in small but meaningful ways. Our goal of 2010 “action items” for last year was easily surpassed, and that doesn’t even include so many actions that were never recorded on our website. There is no doubt in our minds that the Reformed churches are ready and willing to hold up the truth of God’s Word in all parts of our lives, including in the public square.

Perhaps most encouraging of all, much of this work is being done by young men and women. They may not be the ones that come out to the events in as large numbers, but they are getting informed and active in many ways, including through political and legal careers.

Yes, there may be many disturbing trends in our society, but we know who holds the world in His hands. Instead of being cynical or fearful, the Reformed community can make a powerful impact on this nation through our size and Christian worldview. For that to happen, we have a responsibility to treasure, and make use of, the heritage we have been given.

When God created the world, he gave man a foundational command commonly known as the cultural mandate: “be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth and subdue it, and have dominion” over it (Genesis 1:28). There are five imperatives in this cultural mandate, but the first three – be fruitful, multiply, and fill the earth – all have to do with reproduction. It is striking that the very first three commands given by God to His image-bearers have to do with having children.

So how well are we as humanity in general, as Canadians, and as Christians fulfilling this command?

Well, not very well.

How well are we fulfilling God’s original command?

Although Christians and demographers might have some debate on when or if the earth is “full,” it is difficult to argue that Canada is “full.” Canada has one of the lowest population densities of any country on the planet, with an average of only 4 people per square kilometre. By comparison, the Netherlands, one of the most densely populated countries (so excluding islands and city-states) has a population density 130 times that of Canada, or 518 people per square kilometre. Although much of Canada’s landmass is not suitable for human habitation, Canada still has the third most arable land per person in the world, with 1.04 hectares (0.0104 square kilometres) per person. That’s 17 times as much farmland per person as the Netherlands (0.06 hectares per person).

Relating to the command to be fruitful and multiply, Statistics Canada recently published some of the results of the latest census, focusing on the changing demographics of Canada. (Statistics Canada oversees a census of the entire population every five years; the latest census was in 2021.) Among its findings, it reports that the total fertility rate – the number of children that a woman can be expected to have in her lifetime – has been declining for decades. In 2020, the last year for which the birth rate is available in Canada, the birth rate hit an all-time low of 1.40.

What does this statistic mean? Well, the fertility replacement rate is 2.1, meaning that if the average woman in Canada had 2.1 children, Canada’s population would remain the same. This makes intuitive sense. Each woman would have to have two children to replace herself and her husband. Since not every woman lives long enough or is able to have children, the natural replacement rate is a little bit higher than two. If fertility rates exceed 2.1, Canada’s population would grow, but if fertility rates are below 2.1, the Canadian-born population will decline.

With the current fertility rate of 1.40, the Canadian-born population is guaranteed to decrease in the long term as more Canadians will die each year than will be born.

This trend is not unique. The fertility rates across the G7 (a group of Canada’s comparable wealthy and democratic peers) are all below the replacement rate of 2.1 according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Why Aren’t We Fulfilling this Command?

Fertility rates have been falling across the developed world for a number of reasons. The Institute of Marriage and Family, which joined the Christian think tank Cardus in 2016, identified three main reasons in a past report on Canada’s Shrinking Families.

First of all, economic factors are incentivizing smaller families. Raising children is becoming increasingly expensive, with the Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada estimating that raising a child under the age of 18 costs $10,000-$15,000 in direct costs each year, plus the opportunity costs of lost wages. Given that the median after-tax income of Canadian families was $66,800 in 2020, children take up a substantial portion of a family’s budget. Women have also increasingly decided to pursue a full-time or part-time career rather than being homemakers. These changing preferences have led many women to decide not to have children or to have a smaller number of kids than their parents or grandparents did.

Secondly, Canadian families are becoming less stable, prompting fewer couples to decide to have children. Cardus’ Canadian Marriage Map demonstrates how, of the total number of families with children, the percentage of married couples has declined while the percentage of common-law couples and lone-parent families has increased. As of 2016, approximately one-third of families with children lack a married couple at the helm. Almost half of all couples – common-law and married – do not have children.

Thirdly, the prevalence of contraception and abortion has enabled Canadians to choose when to have children and how many children to have. Contraceptive pills, approved in Canada in 1960, as well as other forms of contraception have become widely used. When contraception fails, many Canadians turn to abortion. Although the number of documented abortions has been declining over the past decades (74,155 abortions were reported in 2020), there is little data on the number of abortion pill prescriptions, which have become increasingly common in recent years. 

What are the consequences of not fulfilling this command?

The major consequence of a low fertility rate is an aging and possibly declining population. Statistics Canada’s 2021 census report documents how the Baby Boomer generation (the uncommonly large age cohort born in the decades after the Second World War) is retiring from the workforce. In 2016, the number of people over the age of 65, the age traditionally associated with retirement, exceeded the number of people under the age of 15 for the first time in Canada. Five years later, approximately one-fifth of the Canadian population (19.0%) is over the age of 65 while 16.3% of the population is below the age of 15. This trend is projected to continue, as the number of retirees grows faster than the number of children in the foreseeable future. The number of people in the labour force compared to the number of retirees is also declining, meaning that there are increasingly fewer workers paying taxes to support our retirees each year.

The economic impact of an aging population is significant. In 2006, the Senate of Canada released a report on demographics forebodingly entitled The Demographic Time Bomb: Mitigating the Effects of Demographic Change in Canada, documenting how transfers to seniors and the health care costs of seniors would eat up an increasing percentage of government spending. This is a major consideration of whether federal or provincial finances are sustainable in the long term (over the next 75 years). According to the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s 2021 Fiscal Sustainability Report, the federal government’s finances and public pension plans are sustainable over the long-term but provincial/territorial finances are not sustainable, due primarily to “rising health care costs due to population ageing.” When the federal government, provincial/territorial government, and public pension plans are considered together, their fiscal policy is not sustainable over the long term, again, largely because of the aging of the population.

How might we better fulfill this command?

One way to reverse this demographic decline and at least fill our corner of the earth is through immigration. And that is precisely what Canada has done. Despite having a fertility rate well below the replacement rate (meaning that Canada’s population should shrink in the long-term) Canada’s population continues to grow, primarily through immigration. In 2021, Canada welcomed more immigrants than any other year in its history – 401,000 – and the federal government has stated its intentions to keep immigration rates high. While the populations of other G7 countries declined (Japan and Italy) or grew slowly (Germany, France, United States, and the United Kingdom) in the past five years, Canada’s population grew relatively quickly at over 1% per year.

While immigration may help mitigate our aging demographics and help Canadians collectively fill their country, God’s command to be fruitful and multiply applies to individuals too. Canadians simply aren’t having many children. Even Pope Francis recently pointed out this issue, arguing that too many people are choosing to have pets instead of children.

Changing the cultural conversation about children isn’t primarily the task of the government. Given the economic, cultural, and technological factors that are encouraging Canadians to have fewer kids, the ultimate fix isn’t a governmental policy but a renewed understanding of and appreciation for the goodness of children. Children are not primarily a financial burden, a drag on career aspirations, or an unwelcome source of work, but a joy and a heritage from the LORD (e.g. Psalm 127:3-5).

Nevertheless, government policies certainly can help ease some of these factors. Cash transfers to parents such as the Canada Child Benefit and generous parental leave policies alleviate some of the economic costs of children. Reforming Canada’s laws on marriage and divorce could help support stable marriages that are conducive to having children. Restricting abortion, both surgical abortions in hospitals and clinics and abortion pills taken at home, would increase the fertility rate as well.

Conclusion

Canada as a country, with a fertility rate of 1.40, is not fulfilling God’s command to “be fruitful and multiply and fill the earth” well. Economic factors, cultural attitudes towards marriage, contraception, and abortion are all pressuring or enabling Canadians to have fewer and fewer children. Canada’s low fertility rate is leading to the rapid aging of our society, a trend that is only partially offset by increased immigration. Although changing cultural attitudes towards children is better led by the Church rather than the government, government policies can certainly also be reformed to encourage citizens to be fruitful and multiply.

Reader’s Comments: We would love to hear your thoughts about this topic. What are some reasons for optimism or concern when it comes to our public witness? Comments are welcomed through the Facebook page or send us an email at [email protected].

(By Mark Penninga): It has only been about 60 years since a swell of Dutch Reformed immigrants crossed the Atlantic Ocean in a quest for space, freedom, and opportunity in Canada. A lot has changed since then, with a third and fourth generation emerging, many of whom have more awareness of Quebec culture than Dutch. We may wonder what the future looks like for a church community that is now fully Canadian. Here are some things to consider when we look specifically at the role of Reformed Christians in the public square.

(more…)

Langley BC – January 17, 2011: Had enough of winter already? We are only just entering it. The entire western world is radically changing as a result of a rapidly declining fertility rate. An economic melt-down, stressed health-care system, and violent clashes over immigration and competing worldviews are just some examples of the big-picture consequences of society’s choices. Now, more than ever, our world needs to hear the positive message that human life is a treasure.

(more…)

FRONT ROYAL, Virginia, December 9, 2010 (LifeSiteNews.com) – The Population Research Institute (PRI) has just released the fourth episode of their highly popular YouTube series aimed to expose the myth of overpopulation through humorous stick-figure animation. (more…)

July 30, 2010, Life Issues Institute: For years, Russia faced an under-population crisis. One conspicuous explanation stood out: an abortion rate near 70 percent. In just over a decade, the country shrunk by 12 million, prompting the United Nations to predict that by 2050, Russia’s population would further dwindle to one-fifth of what it is now. Only recently did this trend change. (more…)

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